PHRC Events
Hankin Lecture coming up on Wednesday, November 11 at 4pm
Date: 10/29/2015
The PHRC is proud to welcome Dan Fulton, retired CEO of Weyerhaeuser, to present this year's Hankin Distinguished Lecture entitled "Been Down So Long It Looks Like Up to Me": Waiting for the Breakout in Household Formation That's Needed to Drive a Sustainable Housing Recovery at 4:00 PM on Wednesday, November 11, 2015 at the Nittany Lion Inn, Board Room.
This year’s Hankin Lecture takes its lead from the title of a book written by the late author Richard Fariña in 1966– the same year, coincidentally, that this year’s Hankin speaker, Dan Fulton, graduated from Springfield Township High School in Montgomery County, Pennsylvania.
It’s been ten years since the peak of the last housing cycle in 2005, when total annual housing starts exceeded 2 million units. Following 2005, housing starts collapsed nearly 75% during the Great Recession, bottoming out at a level not seen in over 50 years. Though a slow recovery began in 2010, last year, a full nine years after the 2005 peak, housing starts were still less than 50% of 2005 levels, while during the same period of time, population grew steadily by approximately 8%.
By all accounts, the depth and the length of this housing recession is without precedent during the post World War II era. Richard Fariña’s book has nothing whatsoever to do with housing construction, but “Been Down So Long” is an apt summary of the data behind this unprecedented housing downturn, and “Looks Like Up to Me” signals the steady, yet slow (and optimistic) movement towards full recovery.
Many factors contributed to the historic downturn in housing, and a multitude of variables will affect the pace and nature of full recovery. As we consider the future of housing in America, we need to understand the role of population demographics, household wealth, mortgage finance, and a range of housing preferences linked to both culture and economics -- including single-family vs multi-family, urban vs suburban and rural, and ownership vs rental. While all of these factors may drive preferences among the characteristics of future housing development, the most critical determinants of the level of future housing starts are employment, coupled with a return to “normal” of another critical housing demographic statistic – Household Formation.
Mr. Fulton will provide his personal perspective on the subject, based upon his personal journey during a 38-year career with Weyerhaeuser Company, which included residential and commercial real estate finance, leadership of a top-20 national homebuilder, and culminating as the CEO of the country’s largest Timber REIT.
